The City of the Future - 1

World oil discovery has peaked. The major oil fields are being drawn down faster than they are being replaced with new discoveries. We skate a razor's edge between growth of demand and the ability to pump enough fuel to meet that demand. "The market's obsession with plummeting oil demand has been so pervasive in the past six months it even fostered a new theory -- peak demand." this from an article in the Financial Post that also concludes that peak demand is being out gunned by peak production.

Like it or not, things are changing. But what will be the result? What will be the impact on city life, on the way that most people live? That depends a lot on where you live. If you live in Manhattan, or downtown Chicago, or San Francisco, things will not change much. These "livable centers" have never lost their vitality. However, many newer cities and the growth areas around the old livable centers, are not sustainable and will face massive change in the next two decades.

I have often thought that the city of the future will be much like the city of the 1920's. Those turn of the (last) century cities had livable centers surrounded by well connected inner ring suburbs. There were several forms of transit making the connections work well and there was also a very dense network of other means of  transportation which provided short efficient connections. The suburbs themselves were compact with right sized houses on small lots. Lots were frequently served by allys from the back and cars were scarce. The inner ring suburbs also had nearby, walkable, commercial districts with a wide range of services and goods easily available to meet day to day needs. This included grocery stores, hardware stores, specialty shops, laundries, drug stores, cafes, candy stores and the like. The shopping districts were intersperced with churches and schools, also in walking distance. This model worked on the way up the energy curve and it will work also on the way down, although it will jell in different ways. To emphasize consider that real estate in the livable centers and in the old inner ring suburbs is the hottest market nationwide and that it has been for more than ten years.

We will start this series of posts with a look at how cities will fare, beginning with the center of the city and working out to the outer suburbs. More to come...